New methods for statistical decision making in conditions of a limited volume of observations and with a prioriy parametric uncertainty

A new generalized adaptive algorithm for learning to make statistical decisions for exponential families of distributions with a priori parametric uncertainty in conditions of small samples has been developed. A generalized decision rule is presented, obtained by estimating unknown parameters of distributions, as well as a decision rule that satisfies the necessary optimality conditions: constancy of the average probability of a type I error and unbiasedness. Specific decision procedures for partial distributions obtained from a generalized algorithm are considered. Numerical examples are given. The effectiveness of the developed optimal procedure for small samples is shown.